BIG EAST Preview: St. John’s v. No. 6/6 Villanova
St. John’s returns to BIG EAST action this Sunday, as the squad desperately needs its first conference win in the record books. In the midst of their worst losing streak in the university’s history with 11 consecutive losses, the Red Storm (7-14, 0-8) are ready for this nightmare of a skid to be over.
This task will not be easy since the Johnnies’ next opponent is No. 6 Villanova. The Wildcats (17-3, 7-1), who were two spots higher than their current ranking in the AP polls last week, are coming off of an upset loss to then-No.16 Providence. The matchup, which took place last Sunday, was Villanova’s first BIG EAST loss of the season and its first contest that stretched into the overtime minutes.
The Wildcats also are coming into the matchup against St. John’s with the best guns in their arsenal blazing, attempting to prevent another loss. Though the squad will be stepping on the hardwood of the Johnnies’ home court at Madison Square Garden (New York, N.Y.), Villanova will be determined to run the show from tip-off.
POSSIBLE STARTERS
SJU
Kassoum Yakwe – 6-foot-7, 205-pound freshman forward
Amar Alibegovic – 6-foot-9, 235-pound sophomore forward
Durand Johnson – 6-foot-6, 210-pound graduate-student swingman
Ron Mvouika – 6-foot-6, 210-pound graduate-student swingman
Federico Mussini – 6-foot-1, 160-pound freshman guard
’NOVA
Kris Jenkins – 6-foot-6, 240-pound junior forward
Daniel Ochefu – 6-foot-11, 245-pound senior forward
Josh Hart – 6-foot-5, 205-pound junior guard
Ryan Arcidiacono – 6-foot-3, 195-pound senior guard
Jalen Brunson – 6-foot-2 and a half, 199-pound freshman guard
SCOUTING REPORT
Villanova is a very strong team. With respect to their record, the Wildcats are the strongest team in the BIG EAST, securing a seven-game winning streak before the loss to Providence last Sunday. Even outside of the conference matchups, Villanova only lost two other games – one against then-No.7 Oklahoma (Dec. 7, 2015) and the other on the road versus then-No. 8 Virginia (Dec. 19, 2015). As a unit, the Wildcats are a well-oiled machine, having the ability to dominate the game from the paint to the perimeter.
’Nova sees major contributions from seven of its players. Most notably, Villanova’s Josh Hart leads his team in scoring with 15.6 points a game, netting a whopping 52.7 percent of his attempts from the field. The athletic junior guard’s shooting percentages include 34.4 percent from 3-point range.
Teammate Ryan Arcidiacono is also lethal from beyond the arc. The senior guard shoots at a 35-percent clip from the 3-point line and sinks 46.3 percent overall. He averages nearly 13 points a game and adds four assists a matchup to his stat line. Arcidiacono is superb at making offense happen both on and off the ball. He can hit his teammates with sharp passes in sweet spots and can also make his defenders pay off the bounce at the rim as well as with both contested and uncontested 3-point shots.
Freshman guard Jalen Brunson and Kris Jenkins can also do some damage from outside if left open. Brunson averages 10.2 points a game on 42 percent from the field, including 35.1 percent from beyond the arc. Wildcat’s junior forward Kris Jenkins nets 10.3 points a matchup on 38.5 percent from the field with 31.1 percent from 3-point range. More than 2/3 of Jenkins’ shot attempts are from the perimeter. He is also the squad’s best free throw shooter, recording an 82.6-percent success rate from the line.
Although Villanova has several reliable scorers, the team does not rebound by committee. The squad grabs 35.7 boards a contest. The only two players that greatly contribute to the squad’s strength down low are senior big man Daniel Ochefu and Hart. Ochefu leads the squad in cleaning the glass, posting 8.3 rebounds and 9.7 points in 22.2 minutes of floor time a contest. Hart grabs 7.2 boards to go along with his aforementioned 15.6 points a game. Neither are very good shot-blockers.
Collectively, Villanova works very well together, moves as one and is not prone to errors. The squad averages 16 assists and 10.9 turnovers a game. The Wildcats shoot 46.4 percent from the field, including 31.9 percent from 3-point range. The team makes eight treys a contest.
On the defensive end, the Wildcats tightly guard their opponents without falling into much foul trouble. Villanova is dangerous in transition and those opportunities are created off of their ability to force turnovers. The squad steals nearly seven times throughout each matchup and is responsible for countless deflections that help change the possession arrow in its favor.
KEYS TO VICTORY
In order for St. John’s to pull out a win over the formidable Villanova, the Red Storm need to step up their collective intensity. The squad cannot afford to have a late start or a poor finish. The Johnnies must keep their energy consistent throughout the 40-minute stretch or else the Wildcats will run through them. St. John’s must take good care of the basketball, keeping in mind that ’Nova will capitalize on any error the Storm commit.
* Villanova has great shooters. The Johnnies must be able to guard the perimeter well in order to slow down the Wildcats. Since ’Nova can rapidly score in clusters and leap ahead by double-figures before its opponent can respond, the Red Storm must stay alert and suffocate their opponents on defense. The Johnnies’ defensive objective should be to prevent Villanova from having much space for daylight to drive, pass or knock down long jumpers.
* St. John’s may be able to out-rebound the Wildcats if all hands are on deck when it comes to battling in the paint and hustling for long rebounds. The Johnnies should search for any opportunity to increase their offensive possessions. Since Villanova only has two consistently strong rebounders that pull most of the weight, a gritty, collective effort to get boards is a must. Every board earned is a possession lost for ’Nova and an opportunity for the Johnnies to close any gaps created by the the Wildcats’ perimeter marksmanship.
* Another way St. John’s can secure more possessions is through its ability to steal the basketball. If the Johnnies can continue that trend against Villanova, then their transition game should be relied on heavily and regularly throughout the matchup. Once the Red Storm end up in the half-court, even if the squad is trailing by substantial double-figures, St. John’s must play smart and try not to execute too quickly with a long jumper or 3-pointer. Primary ball-handlers must be patient and alert enough to read the defense and find the best scoring opportunity – even if it turns out to be just a deuce.
* Because the Johnnies are better at blocking shots than Villanova – thanks to freshman forward Kassoum Yakwe – the team can use that advantage to diffuse the inside job a Wildcat player like 6-foot-11, senior big man Daniel Ochefu can do with mismatches in the paint. Those blocked shots must be swatted toward teammates so that Villanova does not regain possession.
* Although it sounds relatively simple: the Johnnies need to make their free throw opportunities. Currently, the Red Storm average only 65.5 percent from the line. That is unacceptable when it comes to free points. This will make a difference if the game comes down to just a few points between the squads. To be a complete team, St. John’s must quickly improve in this area.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The truth is that the unranked St. John’s is not the squad expected to win on Sunday, but that does not mean that the Johnnies cannot defeat Villanova. The Red Storm must tighten all of their loose ends and play the crispest game possible if they want to snap their losing streak this weekend. The Wildcats are not going to play St. John’s like a “cupcake team” just because the Johnnies are winless in conference play. ’Nova will throw its full weight behind every offensive play and every defensive assignment.
St. John’s plays host to No. 6/6 Villanova at “The World’s Most Famous Arena,” Madison Square Garden (New York, N.Y.) on Sunday, Jan. 31. Tip-off is set for noon.
